ESPN analytics very down on Seahawks playoff chances

We’ve reached that time of year where ESPN releases its Football Power Index (FPI) rankings for the upcoming NFL season. If you’re a Seattle Seahawks fan expecting a high opinion of the team, you can probably stop reading at this paragraph. I’m surprised you even got this far when I gave the details away in the title.

Anyway, ESPN’s FPI is a ratings and win projection model for NFL teams. During the preseason the predictive ratings involve a team’s schedule and projected win total from its betting service, “along with factors such as the strength difference between a team’s starting and backup quarterback and a revamped special teams rating based primarily on new predictive kicker ratings. We use these team ratings to simulate the season thousands of times, creating our projections.”

The Seahawks rank 21st in the Football Power Index, which is just about bottom third. What’s interesting is the perceived (or maybe expected) weakness of the NFC means that Seattle is actually 9th highest in the conference. As you might expect, the 49ers, Detroit Lions, Dallas Cowboys, Philadelphia Eagles, Green Bay Packers, Los Angeles Rams, Atlanta Falcons, and Chicago Bears are the NFC squads ahead of Seattle. You’re looking at six playoff teams from last season and two others that made significant offseason moves to indicate they’re going to vie for playoff spots.

If you look at playoff chances, Seattle is 22nd at just 29%. That’s down from the roughly 50-50 projection for the Seahawks in 2023, which in hindsight wasn’t that outlandish. This year’s projections are closer to 2022, when the Seahawks were 27th in preseason FPI with minuscule playoff odds.

We’ll bookmark this and see how accurate this ends up being!