Cigar Thoughts, Game 15: It’s So Over / We’re So Back, Part II

***As most of you know, Cigar Thoughts is now a podcast. One of the perks of the pod is getting these articles in audio form, in addition to our sit-downs with our amazing guests— like this one with NFL writer / savant for The Ringer, BEN SOLAK. You can listen to all the shows, including this article, right here:

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Second verse, same as the first! Apparently the Seahawks liked the taste of muddling their way to a 17-13 deficit through 59 minutes last week, because today, Seattle went back for more of the exact same dish. And after Drew Lock came through with the game-winning drive on Monday, Geno Smith followed suit this morning.

The Seahawks’ second consecutive heart-stopping victory moves them to 8-7 and shoves them back into the ass-end of the playoff picture. They did it, and while it wasn’t easy to look at, every NFL win is hard to come by and they all spend the same when it’s time to dole out postseason spots.

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There are a few things you can count on in an otherwise unpredictable league, and one of them is that a Mike Vrabel-coached team is gonna try to drag you down into the mud. Another constant is that a Pete Carroll-coached team will be willing to meet you there.

The first quarter was hard-hitting and scoreless. There were a few first downs but not much else to report. Both defenses came out and laid hat for the entire first period though, pulling the game into the clinch where each team tried to wear the other down with short-range body blows; trading punts on each of the first four possessions.

Things finally opened up a bit in the second quarter, with the Titans enjoying the first sustained drive of the game. They did so by turning to their Herculean running back Derrick Henry, who found some momentum after a historically poor performance last week. His tireless rumbling got Tennessee down to Seattle’s 12 yard-line and, keeping with the theme, Ryan Tannehill handed it back off to the yeti. But instead of tucking and running, this time Henry pulled back and lobbed a pass to a wide-open Chigoziem Okonkwo in the endzone. The trick play gave the Titans a 7-0 lead and put some pressure on a Seahawks offense that had been sleepwalking up this point.

Indeed, that score finally jolted Seattle awake, and they started playing with a little pace on their next possession. It started with Ken Walker capturing the right edge and sprinting upfield for 24 yards. That was followed by another downhill Walker run, this time for eight. On the next play, Geno looked outside to DK Metcalf on a hitch route. After making the catch, the big man went to work, running up the field and effortlessly hurdling a would-be tackler to turn a short throw into 26 yards. That put Seattle in the redzone, an area in which they’ve struggled mightily this season.

That didn’t change with their first real scoring opportunity of the day, as the offense bogged down inside the 20, leaving the Seahawks to accept a lukewarm three points. Jason Myers made the kick to cut the lead to 7-3 but it felt like a wasted chance in the moment.

In fact, that three points would get erased on the Titans’ next drive and all it would cost Seattle was seven and a half crucial minutes. With Jordyn Brooks sustaining an ankle injury, Tennessee started hammering away at the middle of the Seahawks defense with Henry and rookie Tyjae Spears. It worked.

Seattle got blown off the ball on runs up the middle and lost contains on runs around the edge. It wasn’t until former Titan Mario Edwards Jr broke free for a sack that the march finally stopped. Still though, Nick Folk extended the lead back out to seven points, leaving the Seahawks with just four minutes to do something about it before the half. It briefly looked like Seattle might be able to make it happen, when a roughing the passer penalty extended the possession. But the offense just looked like it was boxing with a bum shoulder, as nothing they called had any oomph behind it.

The drive fizzled, and by the time the second quarter was over, the Seahawks had just 93 total yards to show for their 30 minutes. The good news is that Seattle got the ball to start the second half and when a personal foul was added onto Deejay Dallas’ nice return, they were able to get going around midfield.

A scintillating Walker run for 12 set up a slant to Jaxon Smith-Njigba to keep the chains moving a couple snaps later. After a short run, Smith cocked back and drilled a deep out pass to Tyler Lockett down to the 11. A designed keeper got it to the 8, and it was time to see if Shane Waldron had any redzone answers this time. The next play had a chance, with Colby Parkinson streaking along the baseline to the back left corner of the endzone, but he was unable to get his second foot down after snagging the pass. On 3rd down, Geno moved out of a collapsing pocket and lofted a pass high to Metcalf at the goal line. DK leapt, and got his hands on it, but so did Tremaine Edmunds and the latter did enough to get the ball to hit the turf. Another field goal, and it was 10-6.

The thing about this game is that there just weren’t very many drives. A ton of run plays, decent 3rd down conversion rates, and a general lack of urgency had this game scooting along. Tennessee’s next possession was no different, as they slowly and methodically moved the ball down the field, including Tannehill converting a 3rd & 11 with a 13-yard tuck and run. The Titans eventually faced a 3rd & 8 from the Seattle 42, but Riq Woolen expertly jumped a crossing route, nearly picking it off, and forcing a punt.

It was only the second drive of the second half, but by the time it was done, the third quarter was nearly over and an unsportsmanlike penalty against Dallas on the Titans’ latest punt had the Seahawks pinned on their own 4. It was then that Seattle put together their best possession of the game. Like last week, they had looked mostly lethargic and unprepared on offense to this point but Geno found some rhythm here.

The last time Seattle started a drive inside their own five, they got real tentative. Not so here. Smith immediately dialed up Smith-Njigba for 20 yards and some much-needed breathing room. After a false-start and a short run, an illegal contact foul gave the Seahawks an automatic first down. That was followed by another penalty, this one a personal foul against Tennessee, and it set up a big 21-yard completion to Lockett into scoring position.

A Walker run and a Walker catch set up 3rd & 3, and Geno didn’t hesitate to find Metcalf on a slant from the right side for 12 yards. Two snaps later, he went back to DK, this time on the other side of the field. On this play, Metcalf charged towards the goal line, then contorted his body into a powerful stutter-step at the 5. Smith hit the top of his dropback and let it fly towards the back left pylon. As he did, Metcalf came out of his break, dusting the CB and presenting a big window for Smith’s pass. The flailing CB grabbed Metcalf’s right arm and even though it wasn’t called, it didn’t stop DK from snaking his left palm out to snag the pass and bring it to his chest while dragging both feet.

The missed PI was bad enough, but the official also initially ruled the pass incomplete. Fortunately, Carroll challenged and replay rightfully awarded Metcalf the score, even if the mistake cost him a chance to celebrate in the endzone. It was an incredible possession, covering 96 yards on 10 plays and the touchdown, Metcalf’s fifth in the last four games, put the Seahawks up 13-10 early in the fourth quarter. All of a sudden, they were one or two defensive stops away from a crucial victory in this low-scoring slugfest.

If only it was that simple. The swapping of excruciatingly long drives continued with Tennessee’s next possession, as they marched down the field like a herd of turtles. It actually got off to a promising start for Seattle’s defense, as Bobby Wagner came free on a delayed blitz for a big sack. That momentum builder was undone by a screen pass to Spears for 13 and a four-yard Spears run on the ensuing 3rd & 3.

The next four plays— three Henry runs and a completion to Treylon Burks— covered 37 yards and a couple snaps after that, Spears converted a 4th & 1. Derrick Hall would blow up the next play in the backfield but the Titans remained undeterred. Deandre Hopkins crossed Tre Brown up on an endzone route, coaxing the cornerback into a pass interference penalty and an automatic first down. Two Henry runs after that, Artie Burns was goaded into some extracurricular activity and an additional penalty. That put Derrick Henry on the doorstep with just over three minutes left, and he did what he’s been doing for years in that situation. His touchdown gave the Titans a 17-13 lead and put the Seahawks right back in the same position they found themselves in last week.

Much was made about Drew Lock’s game-winning drive six days ago, and rightfully so. The #discourse that followed it, about who should be the starting quarterback and whether Geno would have won that game, was pure, unshackled silliness and it gave rise to a rather absurd debate among Seahawks fans.

All of that made the fact that Smith found himself in a similar situation today all the funnier. The stage was set for amplifying a maddening conversation but Geno wasn’t about to let that happen. The possession started at the 25 with a short completion to Smith-Njigba. Smith missed an open Metcalf on the next play, but hit Lockett on a huge 3rd down to keep the sticks moving.

Seattle got cute after that, attempting an unnecessary draw play to Walker that fooled no one, and that wasted play was followed up by a devastating sack. That created a 3rd & 14 but if Geno has showed us anything over the last couple of years, it’s that big moments and long odds don’t shake him. That was as true as ever here, as Smith calmly hung in the pocket and whipped a perfect throw over the middle to JSN. The rookie caught the ball cleanly and got to the turf for another big first down.

A couple plays later, Smith hit Lockett on the sideline for 12 and the wheels on the bus kept going round. Consecutive completions to Smith-Njigba and Lockett moved the chains again, and that’s when Smith went back up top. Dropping back and looking for glory, Geno launched a seam pass towards Metcalf, who worked his way inside the defender. As he did, the corner grabbed him and while it was enough to keep DK from catching the pass, the ensuing flag gave Seattle a 1st & goal from the five and the Seahawks suddenly needed a bad redzone offense to get good in the worst way.

The thing is, Seattle’s goal line and short-yardage play-calling has been about as imaginative as dirt, and the first two plays did nothing to dissuade that notion. On both first and second down, the Seahawks ran shotgun handoffs, netting a total of one yard and enraging yours truly. That made it 3rd & goal with a minute left and while the next play lacked creativity, it swelled with execution.

With the game on the line, Geno dropped back and looked left. In his sights was tight end Colby Parkinson, who got a few yards into the endzone and then posted up the smaller defender that drew the unfortunate task of guarding him. Smith’s pass was on the outside shoulder and Parkinson used his big body to shield the defender from the ball. He caught it and cradled it to his bosom as the two players wrestled to the turf. The ball moved nary an inch in Colby’s strong grasp, and the official raised his arms to indicate touchdown.

Jason Myers trotted out to make it 20-17 and all the that remained was for the Seahawks defense to protect the lead for 57 seconds. No problem. The Titans had a couple of plays to briefly raise the uncertainty but any hopes of their own miracle victory were snuffed out when Dre’Mont Jones sacked Tannehill to all but end it.

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SMOKE RINGS

~Geno Smith was back in the starting lineup after two weeks off and it was awesome to see him have his moment six days after Drew Lock had his. The Seahawks offense was caked in rust for the entire first half but they looked pretty dece over the final two quarters. While not spectacular, Smith’s numbers ended up being solid at the end of the day. All told, he completed 25 of 36 passes (69.4%) for 227 yards (6.3 Y/A) and two touchdowns without turning the ball over.

His QBR and passer rating were perfectly respectable at 74.6 and 104.7 but it was his performance on the final possession that set his day apart. Geno was 7-10 for 57 yards and a TD with the game on the line in those last three minutes and it was his fourth game-winning drive in the final minutes already this season. He’s always been the guy, but today’s game should help quiet some of the noise from those outside the building who haven’t felt that way for whatever reason.

~Ken Walker didn’t quite have the game he did last week, but he injected some energy into an offense that was desperate for it in the second half. He looked as quick and shifty as he has all season, making multiple tacklers miss, even in tiny spaces. He got more yards than those that were blocked for him, as is his specialty, finishing with 56 total yards on 17 touches. Nothing crazy, but a lot better than most guys would get given the way Tennessee’s DL was winning up front.

~The receivers looked great today, and they did an awesome job of sharing the meager wealth to be had. DK Metcalf had four catches for 56 yards and a touchdown, while Tyler Lockett led the way with eight catches and 81 yards. Rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba was targeted seven times, snagging six of them for 61 yards including the biggest third down conversion of the game.

This is what Seattle envisioned when they drafted JSN in the first round. Three receivers, all worthy of high-leverage targets, making it almost impossible to funnel extra coverage to any one of them. All told, Smith was 18-24 for 198 yards and a TD when targeting this trio.

~Colby Parkinson, man. Not only was he cool enough to come on the show and smoke cigars while talking ball with us, he’s been an unheralded pillar of this offense for two years now. He’s been slowly earning the bulk of the diminishing TE targets in this offense and today was no different, as he snagged three of the four passes Geno through to the group. The touchdown though— well, that was more than just a five-yard catch.

That target— 3rd & goal, down four— is earned. As I just mentioned, there are three excellent receivers who could’ve gotten that pass but Smith only looked for one player in that situation, and Parkinson came through in the clutch. A huge moment for a player that’s been working his ass off for years now.

~The defense did what they had to do today. If there was any real weakness this morning, it was that the middle of the unit got a little soft against the run after Jordyn Brooks got hurt, and the spate of late penalties almost cost them, but overall— they did a nice job of holding a beleaguered Titans offense in check.

They held Tennessee to 17 points on 287 yards, only 117 of which came in the second half. Ryan Tannehill dropped back 32 times in this game, which resulted in just 15 completions and a paltry 113 net yards. They sacked him six times, with Boye Mafe leading the way.

Mafe counted two sacks among his stunning four tackles for loss, and the remaining four sacks were split between Bobby Wagner, Jarran Reed, Mario Edwards Jr, and Dre’Mont Jones.

Speaking of Wagner, he was asked to do more with Brooks out and responded with a team-leading 11 tackles. He wasn’t victimized in the midrange passing game the way he has been much of this season and he played with the type of vigor necessary to rally this defense in a low-scoring game. Overall though, this was just a really cohesive performance from a defense that hasn’t had many of those recently and they’ve now held consecutive opponents to 17 points.

~I’ve been pretty non-committal regarding Shane Waldron this season and today’s game didn’t do much to push me in either direction. If anything, the continued lack of ingenuity kept me drifting away from wanting him back next year.

In baseball terms, Waldron runs a high-OBP / low BA with RISP offense. Seattle is elite— I’m talking up there with the 49ers and Dolphins— in 1st & 2nd down production. They’re top-5 on 3rd downs in the first quarter. But they have been absolutely putrid in the highest-leverage situations all season long. They’re bad in the redzone, worse on 3rd downs, and with a clear standard for offensive efficiency being set elsewhere in the league, it’s becoming more apparent to me that Waldron— while not bad, per se— simply doesn’t have as many shots in his golf bag as those guys do.

The Seahawks offense, which has been stagnant in as many games as otherwise, has been bailed out by five game-winning drives this season. That’s a difficult formula to rely on if you’re serious about closing the gap between you and the truly great teams in the NFL.

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The Seattle Seahawks are 8-7 with games against the Steelers and Cardinals remaining. Like today’s effort, it hasn’t always been pretty but there are no style points when it comes to seeding the playoffs. And you know what— even if there were, I think the Seahawks hold their own pretty well. The five losses they suffered in that six-game stretch came against teams with a combined record of 50-21. Five of their wins have come in deliriously fun fashion at the end of games, and they’re on the short list of teams with two wins over teams with 10+ wins.

Seattle isn’t a great team, but I think it’s fair to call them a good one that’s trending in the right direction. With any luck, they’ll get Devon Witherspoon and Jordyn Brooks back next week, which will add extra horsepower to car that’s now pointed straight at the postseason. The NFL season is weird, but it’s not as weird as the Seattle Seahawks. 8-7 is a pretty good place to be, all things considered, and if the playoffs started today, the Seahawks would be in ‘em.

Like I said earlier, NFL wins are tough to come by. If you root for a good team, you might get 10 or so days in an entire year where your team wins. Don’t waste those opportunities being too upset, even if the win isn’t as clean as you’d like.

Next week’s matchup will have a massive influence on Seattle’s postseason dreams but until then, enjoy this one. Onward, upward, happy Christmas, and merry holidays y’all.

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It’s Christmas Eve, so I treated myself to a Davidoff Year of the Rabbit from their vaunted Zodiac Series. These are some of the best cigars I’ve ever smoked so I try to save them for special occasions— like Seahawks wins on holidays. The thing about cigars like this though is that sometimes, they are the special occasion.

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And if you didn’t know, we also have our own cigars now, which you can order below:

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We’re also on YouTube, where you can catch video clips from the podcast, entire video episodes, and the audio recordings of the articles. Go watch our latest edition featuring Ben Solak. This is maybe the best way to support Cigar Thoughts, so I appreciate the few seconds it takes to like and subscribe.

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This is the 5th year of our incredible partnership with Seattle Cigar Concierge. They have the plug on some of the most insane stogies on the market and they’re offering them to Cigar Thoughts readers for 20% off. These are extremely special sticks, and among the most enjoyable I’ve ever smoked. To get the hook-up, just email SeattleCigarConcierge@GMail.com. They are carrying over 70 cigar brands with many rare releases, including Davidoff, Opus X, and Padron. You can also hit them up on Twitter: @SeattleCigars. Just be sure to mention that you’re a Cigar Thoughts reader. Many of you have taken advantage of this incredible opportunity and for those who have always wondered what elite cigars are like, this may the best chance you’ll get to step into that world.

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We’re also thrilled to announce an awesome new partnership with Westland Distillery in Seattle, which is my favorite local whiskey maker. Today I cracked open their Garryana #8, which was just ranked as the #3 whiskey in the entire world by Whiskey Advocate. And yeah, it’s that good.

Westland is an American Single Malt Whiskey distillery in the SoDo neighborhood of Seattle. Tasting room and bar is open to the public, serving whiskey flights, cocktails, and small bites. Bottle shop onsite, featuring distillery exclusive releases and more, located at 2931 First Avenue, a little over a mile south of Lumen Field. Needless to say, I’m stoked to be working with them and one of the reasons I love their whiskeys so much is that they’re excellent pairings with a good cigar.

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The 2023 season of Cigar Thoughts is also proud to be sponsored by Fairhaven Floors in Bellingham, WA.