No, the Seahawks aren’t trading DK Metcalf

The end of the first offseason of the Mike Macdonald era for the Seattle Seahawks is quickly approaching, with just mandatory minicamp remaining ahead of a five and a half week break before training camp. That, of course, means that the slowest of slow news seasons for the NFL is just around the corner, but with a new coaching staff and new systems in place on both sides of the ball there will be plenty to discuss.

With that in mind, one of the topics that will remain front and center over the next year or so is how the team should handle the contract situation of DK Metcalf. Many fans have already called for the team to trade Metcalf due to the $29.5M cap hit he is set to carry during the 2025 season, in spite of the fact that he has been one of the most productive receivers in the history of the NFL through the first five seasons of his career.

Specifically, many fans are quick to point out that Metcalf’s current contract has him as the tenth highest paid wideout in the NFL, even though the only time he’s finished in the top ten in the NFL in receiving yards was during the no defense allowed 2020 COVID year that saw inflated offensive production across the league during the first half of the season. In his other four seasons Metcalf has finished 34th (2019), 28th (2021), 16th (2022) and 18th (2023) in the league in receiving yards, which has irked many fans hoping for the dominance of 2020 to repeat.

With that in mind, however, what Metcalf has done is remain incredibly consistent, missing just a single game over the duration of his NFL career. That fact has allowed him to be the eleventh most productive receiver in the league during the five years he has been in the league, meaning the next time a productive, young receiver receives a new contract extension, Metcalf’s cap cost will be right in line with his production relative to other receivers in the league.

That, certainly, won’t silence those calling for him to be traded, but the reality is that most receivers drafted don’t produce anywhere near what Metcalf has provided so far in his career. Even the highly sought after first round wide receivers don’t produce at the level fans anticipate, as Sam Bruchhaus of Sumer Sports noted back in May.

For those who think the careers of Nate Burleson (5,630 yards, 39 touchdowns) or Eric Decker (5,816 yards, 58 TD) aren’t worth a first round pick, the reality is that the median career production for a first round wide receiver is around 4,000 yards and 25 touchdowns. Those are not rookie contract production numbers, they are for the entire career of the player.

For comparison, Metcalf has already recorded 5,332 receiving yards and 43 touchdowns while still just 26 years old. So, for those who want to trade Metcalf for a first round pick, the reality is that even if the Seahawks turned around and used that first round pick to select a receiver, there’s a very high probably they’d get less production out of that receiver than they would out of Metcalf over the next four years.

At this point some are almost certain to rush to the comments and argue that there’s a difference between receivers taken earlier in the first round compared to those taken later in the first round, but the reality is the median production is are not all that different.

• Receivers selected with picks 1-16: 4,500 yards & 28 touchdowns
• Receivers selected with picks 17-32: 3,900 yards and 20 touchdowns

This is the part where those who are in favor of trading Metcalf will argue that the Seahawks would be able to trade him for multiple picks, such as the first and the third the Philadelphia Eagles gave the Tennessee Titans for A.J. Brown. That idea, however, ignores the fact that in the NFL teams don’t trade for players, they trade for players on a specific contract. In the case of Brown the Eagles acquired a player about to enter their age 25 season with a year remaining on his rookie contract.

The four year extension the Eagles gave Brown put him under contract for five seasons at a total cap cost of just over $100M, a level of flexibility a team would not have when acquiring Metcalf’s $13M salary for 2024 and $18M salary in 2025. That is before getting into the fact that a 25 year old player is more valuable than a 27 year old player because of the expectation of an additional two years of production available, meaning any compensation received for trading Metcalf would be less than what was received for Brown.

Regardless of the compensation received, though, the simple reality is that sometimes players don’t pan out, even highly touted first round prospects. Since the Eagles sent a first and a third to the Titans, Brown has hauled in 194 passes to the tune of 2,952 receiving yards and 18 touchdowns. Meanwhile, Tennessee used the first round pick it received from the Eagles to draft Treylon Burks, who has 665 receiving yards and a single touchdown so far in his career. It’s impossible to close the book on Burks at this point given that he remains just 24 years old, but the reality is that he’s now no higher than fourth on the depth chart behind DeAndre Hopkins, Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd, and could wind up as a first round special teams player according to new Titans head coach Brian Callahan.

Now, sure, the Seahawks could save a ton of cap space by trading Metcalf, but what exactly good would that do? Allow them to run out and sign someone like Jamal Adams or Luke Joeckel or Phil Haynes or some other player whose pay far outweighs their production? Fans are quick to complain about Metcalf carrying a $24.5M or $29.5M cap hit, but is it somehow better to give $24M to Phil Haynes, Luke Joeckel and Ziggy Ansah?

So, yes, Seattle could trade one of the most productive young receivers in the history of the NFL, but the reality is that they won’t because the return on such a trade would likely be far less than what Metcalf will provide.