PFF analyst explains why ‘really good’ Geno Smith is only 18th in quarterback rankings

Pro Football Focus recently released its rankings of the top (projected) starting quarterbacks in the NFL ahead of the 2024 season. The quarterbacks are separated into tiers, of which one is dedicated exclusively to Patrick Mahomes.

Geno Smith is in Tier 4, which is described as “The Melting Pot of Starters.” I’d argue these are generally the quarterbacks who significantly divide opinion to some degree. Alongside Smith are Jordan Love, Brock Purdy, Tua Tagovailoa, Kirk Cousins, Jared Goff, Kyler Murray, and Caleb Williams. Geno comes in at No. 18 (only ahead of Williams in his tier).

Here’s the PFF blurb:

Smith put together back-to-back very solid seasons in 2022 and 2023. In his most recent campaign, he elevated his big-time throw rate from 5.4% to 6.0% and reduced his turnover-worthy play percentage from 4.2% to 3.5%. He missed two games due to a groin injury in 2023, so some of those cumulative numbers could have been even better.

But Smith’s two years have been a tale of four quarters. In the first half of 2022, he earned the third-highest passing grade in the league. In the second half, he led the league in turnover-worthy plays. In the first half of 2023, he had more turnover-worthy plays (13) than big-time throws (11). But from Week 10 on, he was top five in passing grade and big-time throws.

At 33 years old and entering the final year of his deal with guaranteed money, Smith may not be seen as a franchise quarterback. But he is absolutely the kind of guy who can engineer a win in any given week.

Trevor Sikkema explained his reasoning to hosts Michael Bumpus and Stacy Jo Rost on Seattle Sports 710.

“Honestly, when I had him at 18, it felt low for the highs that I have seen in Geno,” Sikkema said Wednesday on Seattle Sports’ Bump and Stacy. “But it was just the up and down … for the last two years that was kind of tough for him. I believe he’s a really good quarterback. It’s just kind of a consistency thing. But we’ve seen it from him, for sure.”

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“He’s had these streaks over the last couple of years and you’ve just gotta all put it together,” Sikkema said. “Him being healthy, the guys around him being healthy, having that consistency, getting to play a ton together, that chemistry. I think that it’s all there for Geno.”

It’s hard to disagree with the idea that Geno has had some major peaks and valleys as a Seahawks starter. The hot start to 2022 gave way to a bit of a cooldown toward the end of the season, and his strong finish to 2023 (starting with the 41-35 loss to the Dallas Cowboys) was preceded by up-and-down performances. There were definitely some extenuating circumstances regarding injuries (including to himself last season) that factored in, but the results are the results.

I do know that he fared a lot better under pressure than the eye test may indicate.

Hopefully with a new offensive coordinator and a better offensive line, we can see more of the best of Geno than his lowlights in 2024... or maybe you think it doesn’t matter the OL or OC, the No. 18 ranking is essentially who he is. Vote in the poll below!